1 year ago
Don’t hold your breath, but it looks like Capitol Hill might actually get a holiday break this year: Both senior Democratic and GOP sources say that Speaker Mike Johnson’s two-step continuing resolution is on track to pass the House when it comes to the floor Tuesday.
That's despite the Biden White House initially blasting the proposal over the weekend, House GOP appropriators grousing for days about the idea of creating dual spending deadlines, and a hard-right revolt in recent days over the lack of spending cuts in the bill.
Of course, this is the House we’re talking about here, so maybe wait a couple hours before booking those plane tickets.
But there appears to be a solid bipartisan coalition for Johnson’s plan, which funds four of the 12 annual spending bills until Jan. 19 and the rest until Feb. 2.
The plan
Johnson will put his CR on the floor under suspension of the rules, which requires a two-thirds majority for passage. With Rep. Gabe Amo (D-R.I.) getting sworn in just yesterday — welcome to Congress! — there are now 434 sitting lawmakers. If they all vote, Johnson’s magic number is 290.
For a frame of reference, consider the last CR, which passed Sept. 30, as a guide: Of the 335 lawmakers who supported that measure, 209 were Democrats and 126 were Republicans. We’ll likely see those numbers fluctuate today, but you can be certain of this: If this CR sails through, Johnson has Democrats to thank for it.
How Dems see it
House Democratic leaders have kept their powder dry since Johnson unveiled his proposal Saturday. The company line yesterday went something like this: We haven’t reached any decisions on how we’ll tell members to vote; we’ll discuss the matter as a caucus on Tuesday morning then decide together.
But Democrats familiar with discussions among Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ leadership team told us that they expect senior Democrats to back the measure — along with a solid majority of the Democratic caucus.
Why? Because, they figure, what’s the alternative? Democrats shutting down the government because they don’t like a two-pronged deadline?
Sure, there are some Democrats who are concerned about this plan. In a private leadership meeting last night, some expressed regret that the CR doesn’t address the Women, Infants and Children nutrition program, which feeds millions of vulnerable families and is running out of money.
It’s also just not how Washington typically handles its business. Two deadlines, one Democratic source vented to us, was “stupid.”
But senior Democrats agree neither of those reasons are justification for flirting with a shutdown that would hurt federal workers and disrupt a fragile economy. And they certainly don’t want to be blamed for such a fiasco.
What’s more, the spending levels are their own. The CR continues funding priorities that Democrats themselves enacted into law when they had majorities in Congress. And, Democrats privately noted to us, the Senate hasn’t introduced its own version of a CR — so House Democrats have nothing to point to as an alternative to support.
“It’s hard to say, ‘I can’t vote for this because of process,’” one senior Democrat said. “It could be worse. It doesn’t have poison-pill policy riders, and it does fund the government” at levels Democrats support.
To be sure, senior Democrats expect some progressives and appropriators to vote no — certainly more than the single Democrat who opposed the Sept. 30 CR. But it’s pretty telling that last night, the Democrats we spoke to seemed to be more annoyed with top Democratic appropriator Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), who is railing against the CR on process grounds, than Johnson himself.
“That’s not a coherent reason to vote ‘no’ on a bill,” one said.
How Republicans see it
Back on Sept. 30, a majority of the majority, 126 Republicans, voted for then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy's “clean” CR — and it still wasn’t enough to save McCarthy’s job. The hope among GOP leaders this time is that at least as many GOP members come along, and perhaps even a few more, since the two-step CR was originally a Freedom Caucus idea.
Senior Republicans have been privately grateful for the relative silence from Jeffries & Co. The whip count right now is a “sliding scale,” as one senior GOP aide put it: The more Dems that embrace the stopgap, the more Republicans that will drop their support.
“We feel relatively confident, but there is a lot of uncertainty,” the aide said, expressing optimism that Johnson will deliver the GOP votes needed to pass his own measure.
Still, there’s no sugar-coating this for Johnson: This plan is going to disappoint many of his members and the base. It already has. And the optics aren’t exactly great: His first major legislative accomplishment signed into law will be extending funding priorities favored by Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer, a package that will in all likelihood be supported by more Democrats than Republicans.
Lucky for Johnson, many of the same conservatives who groused about McCarthy’s CR don’t feel the same animosity toward him. While the two situations have some superficial resemblance, the reality is that McCarthy had long been seen by his critics as someone who couldn’t keep his word. Johnson doesn’t have that baggage. At least, not yet.
Rep. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.), who was among those who ousted McCarthy, put it this way to CNN’s Manu Raju: “At least [Johnson] doesn’t lie to us.”
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