2 years ago
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Florida Democrats still don’t know who will run in a handful of competitive congressional districts with just six months before the state’s primaries. And they may not know any time soon.
Gov. Ron DeSantis’ unexpected and unusual push to reshape Florida’s redistricting process has all but frozen the field, leaving Democrats frustrated as they wait for state lawmakers and possibly the courts to sort out how Florida’s maps will look.
“I have to see the map,” said former Rep. Donna Shalala, a Miami Democrat who says she is considering challenging Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar to win back the seat she lost in 2020. “I’m not making a decision until I see the lines.”
A legislative deal could be increasingly unlikely, with state lawmakers set to end their two-month annual session on March 11 and DeSantis still threatening to veto any proposal that doesn’t boost the odds for Republicans.
Shalala’s former seat isn’t the only without a top-level Democratic challenger. Former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell — who lost her South Florida seat amid a GOP surge in 2020 — in mid-February bowed out of a potential rematch against GOP Rep. Carlos Gimenez. And Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy in December announced plans to retire at the end of her term, yet two months later no one has stepped forward to defend the seat for Democrats.
It’s a situation that has Democrats fuming at Florida legislators and DeSantis ahead of midterms that will likely see Democrats lose their House majority. The uncertainty has the potential to further disadvantage the party in Florida, the nation’s biggest battleground state.
“I know people working on congressional campaigns and they are losing their minds,” said Matt Isbell, a Florida-based Democratic consultant and analyst who closely tracks redistricting. “Can we please get some final lines?”
Florida’s once-in-a-decade redistricting process was going relatively smoothly until DeSantis surprised many in January by proposing his own maps that called for dismantling two seats now held by Black Democrats, including Rep. Al Lawson in northern Florida. Florida picked up one congressional seat in 2022 due to population growth for a total of 28. Republicans currently hold a 16-11 edge, and DeSantis’ proposal would likely give Republicans a bigger advantage, boosting the number of seats former President Donald Trump would have won in 2020 to 18.
DeSantis, who has threatened to veto any map that keeps Lawson’s district intact, is now on a collision course with the GOP-led Legislature. The Florida Senate already approved maps that are less friendly to Republicans, giving them only 16 Trump-won seats.
The Florida House has come up with two maps, one of which gives Republicans an additional two seats and would break up Lawson’s district. In that plan, Murphy’s seat would slide further north from Orlando and become solid red. But in an odd move, the House also proposed a map that keeps Lawson’s seat intact in case the courts rule against the first plan.
If DeSantis vetoes the Legislature’s maps, it could force state lawmakers to come back into a special session — further delaying a process that could then still end up in the courts. The official qualifying period for federal candidates is mid-June.
State Rep. Anna Eskamani (Orlando), who is seen as a rising progressive Democrat and was recently lauded by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), has been urged by some to run for Murphy’s Central Florida congressional seat but has so far held off entering the race.
“I consider all the doors to be open,” said Eskamani, who last year was weighing a run for governor. “A lot of it depends on the final map.”
Republicans aren’t buying Democrats’ redistricting arguments, however, and say the reluctance is more about a coming red wave. Recent polls show that President Joe Biden is underwater in Florida, and Republicans late last year overtook Democrats in the number of active registered voters in the state for the first time in decades.
“Democrats are seeing a full-blown recruitment crisis across Florida because no one wants to run on their failed agenda of soaring prices, empty store shelves and rising crime,” said Camille Gallo, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee.
The standstill isn’t affecting every district: Three Democrats have jumped into the race for Florida’s 13th Congressional District, which is now held by Rep. Charlie Crist (D-Fla.), who is mounting a bid for governor. The contours of that district are also still in flux and it has drawn several Republican contenders. There is also a spirited primary underway for the seat now held by Rep. Val Demings, who is challenging Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.).
Mucarsel-Powell, who has two teenage daughters, said her decision to forgo another run was based on personal reasons, including wanting to remain closer to home.
“This has absolutely nothing to do whether the Democratic Party is doing [everything] they need to do or not,” Mucarsel-Powell said.
She and other Democrats — including Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, who is running for governor — insist there are still potential candidates in the mix who may wind up running. Fried, the only statewide elected Democrat, said she has routinely been having conversations with party officials about potential candidates.
Shalala, who served as Health and Human Services secretary under former President Bill Clinton, brushed aside concerns about the tight timeline.
“No one is paying attention to the election yet,” Shalala said. “I got in the last time in March. I could raise the money very quickly as could any other well-known Democratic candidate.”
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