2 years ago
Democrats running for Senate are still holding their fire in primaries. Republicans are stuck in the Thunderdome.
GOP candidates are already pummeling each other in monthslong advertising free-for-alls, fights intensified by unprecedented television spending. The parties’ approaches in money spent and messaging could hardly be more different so far, as is the mere number of contested races: For Republicans, there are more than a dozen states where GOP candidates are attacking each other in bids for Senate nominations, while Democrats have unresolved primaries in just two key states — neither of which have turned vicious yet.
The difference is especially pronounced in Pennsylvania. As the Democratic frontrunners Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and Rep. Conor Lamb run ads arguing why they can win in one of the nation’s top battleground states, GOP candidates there have dropped a record-shattering $35 million on TV — the vast majority coming from Mehmet Oz and Dave McCormick, the leading Republicans, whose camps are framing the other as a “liberal RINO” and “Wall Street insider,” respectively.
“They’re doing what I want them to do, which is kick the crap out of each other,” said J.B. Poersch, president of the Senate Majority PAC, Senate Democrats’ flagship super PAC.
Oz and McCormick began spending millions of dollars in December on advertisements introducing themselves to voters. By January, the two camps were already running negative ads against each other for a May 17 primary — to the glee of Democrats who are contesting Pennsylvania and other tightly divided states for control of the 50-50 Senate in November.
“Is that potentially problematic for Republicans? Absolutely,” Poersch said. “They are certainly running arguments that would work against the other in the general.”
Even Senate Republican leaders are engaged in a public power struggle. That clash has unfolded the past two weeks as Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, unveiled his 11-point GOP platform — parts of which Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has rebuffed, reiterating that he would be the one in charge of a Republican majority.
It's an unpleasant complication for the GOP. But Democrats have plenty to worry about themselves: In a friendly midterm environment for Republicans, with the momentum on their side, intraparty mudslinging and big primary spending still might not be enough to tip the scales toward Democrats in November.
“I don’t think it’s particularly helpful,” said Gregg Keller, a Missouri-based GOP strategist, of the intense primary fights unfolding in key swing states. “At the same time, this is going to be such a wave year that except in the most egregious examples of poor candidate recruitment, I think Republicans are going to be fine.”
After all, “Republican primary voters are angry and juiced up,” Keller said.
Senate Republican leadership’s failure to entice potential top-tier recruits such as Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey and New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu means the GOP will likely have nominees starting with lower name recognition — an issue mitigated by the poor environment for Democrats, but still a risk when running against established incumbents.
“I think there is a lot of room for error for Republicans here — as evidenced by the fact that the chairman of the [NRSC] can put together a plan that raises taxes and eliminates Social Security, and everyone says, ‘Oh it doesn’t matter, we’re going to win anyway,’” said a Republican strategist involved in Senate races, who was granted anonymity to discuss internal party dynamics.
The strategist was referring to provisions in Scott’s policy plan that would require all Americans to pay income taxes and would automatically sunset federal programs after five years.
An NRSC policy this cycle of staying out of primaries has also fueled the frenzy.
Senate Democrats have typically intervened in battleground primaries in recent years, but this year, they are taking a similar watch-and-wait approach. So far, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s experiment with primary season patience has proven more successful.
“We're very fortunate that our primaries right now are between candidates who are just focused on their attributes, their vision for the future, and not attacking each other,” said Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), chair of the DSCC.
“We are going to let the primaries play out,” Peters continued. “Whoever is the strongest candidate to win and those primaries will be our nominee. The good news is that all of our main competitors in those primaries — each and every one of them — have the ability and will win in the general election.”
In Wisconsin, where several Democrats have lined up for a shot to run against Republican Sen. Ron Johnson in November, they’ve largely shied away from hitting each other in the process.
Alex Lasry, a self-funding Democrat who has already allocated $3 million for television ads, has so far avoided going after his top rival in the race, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, choosing instead to run positive spots about himself and to attack Johnson.
In Ohio, where Republican candidates and aligned super PACs are spending as much on TV as their counterparts in Pennsylvania — much of it to attack each other — Democrats have stayed off the air. The Ohio Democratic Party last month endorsed the primary frontrunner, Rep. Tim Ryan, further consolidating support behind him as his anti-establishment opponent, Morgan Harper, struggled to gain traction.
Lengthy, high-dollar primary fights pose another headache for Republicans: While they’re burning cash to fight for nominations, Democrats in many of the same battleground states are stockpiling resources.
Democratic incumbents with solid fundraising operations are on the ballot in several key states — Arizona, Nevada, New Hampshire and Georgia — and are spending money now defining themselves ahead of the general election. In North Carolina and Florida, Democrats Cheri Beasley and Rep. Val Demings, respectively, cleared their primary fields early on.
A Republican making it out of a tough primary this spring or summer may very well get “socked with $2 million by a Democrat who’s been pooling their resources throughout the primary season,” Keller said.
But top Republican strategists anticipate second- and third-quarter fundraising windfalls as the party’s nominees are determined and party enthusiasm leads to online fundraising bursts, assuming momentum continues in their favor.
“I would expect our primary election winners to be able to restock the coffers pretty quickly,” said Keller, who is working on a super PAC aligned with Eric Schmitt, the Missouri attorney general seeking the GOP nomination for Senate.
Another GOP operative familiar with Senate campaigns, who also spoke on condition of anonymity, pointed to ways Republicans have made it harder on themselves this cycle — the recruiting losses, failing to clear primary fields, bickering over a party platform and attacking each other in top swing states while Democrats tell their own stories.
But, the strategist continued, Republicans still have the most important factor of all on their side.
“It’s almost like ‘The Godfather: Part III’ — ‘All the power on earth can’t change destiny,’” said the strategist. “I don’t think we’re doing anything to help ourselves in these primaries, but if the environment holds as it is, I think we’ll win almost everywhere.”
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