1 year ago
In late August, Joe Biden’s reelection campaign announced a massive ad buy to run on television and online in key battleground states.
The spots focused on everything from the president’s roots in Scranton, Pa., to his bipartisan achievements in office. The one subject rarely mentioned is former President Donald Trump.
All told, Biden’s campaign and the Democratic National Committee spent roughly $7 million on positive TV ads this year, according to the ad tracking firm AdImpact, along with less than $100,000 on contrast ads that name Trump. Those numbers did not capture all ads, including digital and Spanish-language ones that attack Trump or Republicans in general. But the larger trend was indisputable.
The president’s team made a calculation earlier this year to prioritize bolstering Biden's image versus attacking Trump’s in paid advertising, according to White House aides, a number of Democratic strategists and a top Biden campaign donor. Among the reasons: They figured the ex-president’s GOP primary rivals would do much of the work of roughing him up for them.
That bet has so far not paid off. Trump has largely skated through the primary without being attacked by his opponents. And Biden’s numbers have not budged.
Recently, some on the president's team have begun revisiting the strategy. Several prominent Democrats close to the campaign, granted anonymity to speak more freely about internal operations, said discussions are taking place among Biden brass about how much to prioritize positive campaigning over negative. And allies are calling directly for a more aggressive approach.
“This is not a regular election,” said Rev. Al Sharpton, an MSNBC host who is close to officials in Biden’s orbit. “This is not just about a candidate’s record. It is about a former president who has four criminal indictments and a civil case against him who has said he would terminate the Constitution. This is about what is acceptable to our norms, this is about protecting our democracy itself. It has to be made clear what a threat Trump poses.”
Sharpton said he shared that sentiment with Biden’s team and the DNC.
Biden campaign spokesperson Kevin Munoz said that there has been no shift in their advertising plans: “There is no change in strategy.” He added that “if folks are confused” about their approach, they should read a recent memo released by their team.
Biden campaign officials added that their advertising roadmap has always been to start by reintroducing the president to voters, touting his accomplishments, and laying the groundwork to turn their firepower on the GOP nominee next year. They stressed that they have attacked Trump in other arenas, such as through earned media and surrogate operations.
“We still believe in the strategy of highlighting the president’s accomplishments,” said a Biden campaign official.
The campaign officials said that their approach allows them to test their ads to see which are the most effective, experiment to determine the best platforms, and fine-tune their paid messages. And they said that the GOP primary is demonstrating that Trump and other Republican candidates are extreme and support unpopular positions.
Concerns about the Biden campaign's approach escalated this week among Democrats after a series of polls showed Biden trailing Trump in critical battleground states. Former Barack Obama adviser David Axelrod questioned whether the president is the right person to head the ticket at all. Others said the campaign needs to focus on contrasting Biden with Trump.
But the idea of making the election more about Biden’s predecessor than Biden himself remains hotly debated. One national Democratic strategist close to the campaign said it’s imperative that the campaign do everything in its power to make voters aware of what Biden’s done in office.
“It’d be a big mistake to not lay that out because awareness of his accomplishments are low, but [their] popularity is high,” the person said. “I think what you have to do is find the right mix of positive and negative ads.”
Still, concerns are mounting among major donors and Democrats close to the White House, chiefly around Biden’s monthslong struggle to sell his economic record. One donor said the campaign erred in calculating that once voters understood the president’s accomplishments, his approval ratings would go up
“Well, we spent all this time trying to explain all the good things he did, the bipartisan stuff he did, and it hasn't boosted his numbers. So maybe we ought to go to plan B at this point," the person said, adding, "I know a lot of people are pissed” because the campaign hasn’t hit Trump harder.
In particular, Democrats are torn over the administration’s decision to brand the economic recovery as a result of “Bidenomics.” Officials have yet to figure out a way to allay Americans’ frustration over rising prices, even after months of evidence that inflation has cooled. And there is growing fear that the sales job may never work.
"I can never remember people being unhappy in any economy where they can get a job," said Jeffrey Gural, a real estate developer and longtime Democratic donor. "I think the problem Biden has is there's so much noise out there criticizing him."
Officials in the Biden administration and on the campaign have largely dismissed the angst over Biden's economic numbers, arguing that it's still early in the 2024 cycle and most voters are not yet paying close attention to the presidential race. Some aides believe that once voters start listening to Trump again, they will be turned off by his incendiary rhetoric and vows of vengeance against rivals.
They also contend that the polling is misleading, citing economic measures like strong consumer spending that indicate people are confident about their own financial situation, and that Biden's standing will improve as voters begin to weigh his policies versus Trump’s.
“First of all, I don’t think the house is on fire,” said Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.). “His thing is to continue to sell and to push his programs, the public policies that he wants. He needs to be more assertive with the Republican majority here in the House that are essentially Trump’s mouthpiece on public policy. I think that’s an area in which he can be stronger.”
But some Democrats are concerned the campaign's current setup is not helping the president. In particular, there is simmering frustration over a perceived dearth of outside surrogates in the economic and business community that can be called on to promote Biden's accomplishments.
“Right now, it doesn’t really have the surrogate base developed that’s needed,” said Ben Harris, a former senior Treasury Department official who helped shape Biden’s economic agenda. “The way I’ve put it is, Biden is brilliant at governing — and terrible at bragging about it.”
The White House disputed the criticism of its surrogate operation, with an official saying it's deployed surrogates on more than 300 occasions to do over 1,000 economic interviews since July, though that figure includes both administration officials and outside supporters. The official also said top economic aides stay in regular touch with prominent economists, and that the administration frequently distributes talking points and has worked with outside groups like the progressive think tank Groundwork Collaborative.
For its part, the Biden campaign said it's relied heavily on the 50 Democratic officials who make up its "national advisory board" to help reinforce its viewpoint in the media, highlighting recent television appearances by board members like Sen. Chris Coons, Rep. Jim Clyburn and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
Biden aides concede that very little news has broken through in the last month when the headlines have been dominated by the Israel-Hamas war, though some contend that a loss of support from Muslim Americans may be offset by increased backing from Jewish voters in places like the Philadelphia and Detroit suburbs.
There have also been hints that Biden and his team are starting to recalibrate around that early internal campaign debate and shifting their focus more to Trump.
The campaign linked Trump to the chaos among House Republicans as they sought to elect a new speaker. And those tasked with securing the president a second term believe that Trump’s legal challenges, litany of scandals and MAGA positions — especially on abortion — will alienate swing voters. They’re confident the media’s focus on those legal problems will only accelerate in the months ahead, as court dates approach and especially if a possible conviction looms.
Democrats not working on the campaign but concerned about its status say a more aggressive push on this front would be welcomed.
“They need to frame the race as a choice, not as a referendum,” said Axelrod.
Steve Shepard, Shia Kapos and Nicholas Wu contributed to this report.
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