2 years ago
House Republicans might not have to wait until November to chip away at Democrats’ majority.
Internal party polling conducted this month shows the GOP has a real shot at flipping former Democratic Rep. Filemon Vela’s South Texas seat in the upcoming June special election. Republican Mayra Flores led Democrat Dan Sanchez by 5 points in a late April survey — and President Joe Biden’s job approval was underwater by 14 points in a district he carried by 4 points in 2020.
A win in this once-deep blue seat would offer a big morale boost to Republicans, who have been making a play for Latino voters in the region. And it would be a gut punch to Democrats and Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who are trying to pass an election-year agenda with an already slim majority. But to remain in Congress next year, Flores would have to win again this fall, this time against a Democratic incumbent under new district lines that make the seat far less favorable to the GOP.
The poll, conducted April 19-21 by Ragnar Research for Flores and the National Republican Congressional Committee, found Flores with 24 percent, her Democratic opponent with 19 percent and 41 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.9 percentage points and the sample size was 400 likely voters. The survey also showed a generic Republican beating a generic Democrat, 45 percent to 42 percent.
“Republicans have a real chance to win this district for the first time ever and flip a Democrat-held seat,” pollster Chris Perkins wrote in a memo obtained by POLITICO.
The June 14 special election will take place under last decade’s district lines — which span from Brownsville on the U.S.-Mexico border up north toward San Antonio. All three South Texas districts saw a big shift to the right in 2020 as former President Donald Trump and the GOP made gains among Latinos. Hillary Clinton carried them by double digits in 2016, but Biden won each by just a few points four years later.
When state lawmakers reshuffled those South Texas lines during redistricting last year, they turned Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez’s district into a prime pickup opportunity — a seat Trump would have won by 3 points. Gonzalez decided to run in the newly redrawn version of Vela’s district, which Biden would have carried by 16 points under the new lines.
Yet when Vela resigned, Gonzalez did not give up his current seat to run in the special to fill the rest of Vela's term and instead endorsed Sanchez, an attorney from Harlingen. Flores, a respiratory care practitioner who was born in Mexico, plans to run in both the special and race for the full term.
Even if she wins in June, the Republican would face a much taller task in November in a seat Biden won so handily. And she would be up against Gonzalez, a sitting member. But she would also have the power of incumbency and have a head start in raising her profile.
Special election in closely divided districts often signal a certain amount of momentum ahead of national elections. In summer 2020, now-Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) notched a blowout victory against Democrat Christy Smith for a Democratic-held north Los Angeles district. Democrats attributed the loss to poor turnout and vowed to win it back in November when more of their voters were paying attention.
But Garcia, armed with solid fundraising and a national profile from his special election upset, narrowly beat Smith in their November rematch in a district Biden carried by 10 points.
Republicans are hoping for a similar showing here — though Flores will have to run under two different sets of district lines.
Still, the survey included some nuggets that led Republicans to believe they will be able to continue their inroads with Latino voters. The pollsters found that 34 percent of voters surveyed said immigration and border security is their top issue — a topic Republicans have been working hard to emphasize.
The NRCC and its allies are heavily targeting the other two South Texas seats, which Biden won by 3 points and 7 points, in November. Both are more favorable than the new version of Vela’s seat. A win by Flores, even if it’s only temporarily, would offer a jolt to the Republicans running in neighboring seats and spook Democrats who for years have had a lock on Latino voters in the region.
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