10 months ago
The current forecast in Iowa could best be described as frigid bordering on terrible. Which isn’t ideal for our nation’s political class that is set to descend on, or already decamped to, the Hawkeye State.
Extreme temperatures and snow storms are set to turn the first-caucus state into a bitterly cold mess. Between six and 12 inches of snow are expected across a wide swath of the state Monday and Tuesday. All but seven of Iowa’s 99 counties are under a Winter Storm Warning.
And then… it will just get worse.
Beginning on Saturday and running through next Monday, temperatures will plunge, with lows below zero and daytime highs only in the single digits — which could result in the coldest Caucus Night weather since the modern nominating system began in 1972.
The pile up of extreme temperatures and a snowstorm is already causing last minute headaches for Republican campaigns crisscrossing the state.
On Monday, Nikki Haley’s campaign canceled an event in Sioux City due to the storm. The Trump campaign canceled an event with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and his daughter, current Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, due to issues flying them into Iowa.
Meanwhile, Vivek Ramaswamy’s and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ campaigns both used Haley’s weather cancellation as an opportunity to take digs at her.
“I’m headed to Sioux City for our event right now. We’re not cancelling. Four events in northwest Iowa, keeping them intact. If you can’t handle the snow, you can’t handle Xi Jinping,” Ramaswamy posted on X.
“Haley’s team just canceled her Sioux City event because she can’t stop making gaffes and insulting Iowans,” DeSantis’ campaign texted supporters.
They were being — ahem — a bit cloudy with the truth.
For campaign veterans, this is not registering as the biggest of deals. After all, this isn’t the first time the caucuses have been impacted by the weather.
“We Iowans can handle snow just fine,” said Eric Branstad, the son of former Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad, who formerly worked as a senior adviser to the Trump campaign in Iowa and remains close to the former president. “Cold, cold caucuses are totally normal.”
But there are concerns about how the weather could impact turnout next Monday. Colder temperatures combined with wind or snowy conditions could discourage some voters from turning out.
Influential Iowa evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats said Iowans are “pretty tough. … I bet people brave the cold.” But he warned, “the tougher thing is gonna be if there’s ice. If there’s ice, a lot of times, especially if people are getting a little bit older and love to participate in caucuses, they don’t like to risk ice.”
Vander Plaats, who is supporting DeSantis, predicts the cold temperatures could benefit his campaign operation, “because he’s got the organization to turn people out. And it could be an advantage to Trump, you know, if people are just saying I’m gonna have the former president’s back. But that all plays a factor, no doubt.”
The Trump campaign, for its part, was looking for alternative ways to get its star surrogates into the Hawkeye State on Monday in addition to other ways to engage them with voters.
The question, as usual, is to what degree Mother Nature will oblige.
Snow will begin across the state Monday, with heavy snow expected Monday night and Tuesday morning. The greatest amounts — some exceeding a foot — are possible east of Interstate 35, which bisects the state.
There are two lighter snow events possible for Wednesday and Friday that could impede campaigning. But the potential for bitter cold over the holiday weekend and on Caucus Night will also be a headache for the campaigns.
“Forecast now is for 7 degrees,” said David Kochel, a Republican strategist from Iowa who has advised national campaigns, in a text message. “That’s just bone-chilling cold. Definitely can impact turnout. Caucus attendees tend to be older than the average voter in a general election, so it might be even more pronounced. Not sure it will help/hurt any specific candidate vis a vis the field but generally, it’s my sense that lower turnout is unhelpful to Trump.”
Despite the low temperatures expected next Monday, Branstad said he told Trump at an event over the weekend in Iowa that he thinks he will get “80,000 votes, likely over 50 percent of total turnout. … Our folks are motivated.”
Nicole Schlinger, a veteran Iowa Republican operative, recalled weather snafus playing a role in past caucuses.
“In 2008, the caucuses were held on January 3rd. The Romney campaign planned a huge door-to-door effort the week before that, which turned out to be exceptionally cold and snowy. We had to re-route hundreds of volunteers off the doors and onto the phones. They sat in rows, some in chairs, and some on the floors. Many called from their own personal cell phones using printed lists,” Schlinger said.
But the temperature rebounded on the day of the 2008 caucuses, hitting a downright balmy 30 degrees in Des Moines.
This year, it could be some 20 degrees colder than that. And if it does, records will be set — just not the kind anyone particularly enjoys.
The current record for the coldest, post-1972 Caucus Day is 2004, when then-Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) won the Democratic caucuses. That day, the high temperature in Des Moines hit just 16 degrees with no precipitation nor any snow on the ground.
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