9 months ago
Many Republicans seem to think zeroing in on President Joe Biden’s age is the easy path to victory in November. House GOP lawmakers quickly announced a hearing with Special Counsel Robert Hur, where they are sure to highlight his report characterizing the president as an “elderly man with a poor memory.” But Republicans are making a big mistake if they think voters will not reelect a geriatric politician.
As a Republican strategist who has bluntly tried to make the case for generational change against an opposing presidential candidate, I can tell you it doesn’t really work.
Democrats are concerned about fallout from the Hur report, but as I learned the hard way, there is very little evidence that voters actually care about political leaders’ ages. The record is clear, albeit depressing: One is hard pressed to identify a single president, governor or senator who lost reelection because voters thought they were too old. And that’s despite many younger challengers leveling that attack.
In the last midterm elections, voters on both sides of the aisle put little stake in mental acuity: An 89-year-old Republican senator was reelected in Iowa, while a Democratic Senate candidate with serious cognitive health concerns was elected in Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, both our current and previous presidents set age records after beating younger opponents in the primary and general elections.
The truth is that octogenarians and nonagenarians are far more likely to die in office than lose reelection.
Why? Because a politician’s personal traits — including age, honesty and fidelity — only become salient campaign issues when they are tied to real-world matters that directly impact voters. In most cases, if elected leaders are advancing policies popular with their constituents, voters are willing to look past personal shortcomings and give them another term.
Republicans’ attacks on Biden’s age are not novel: Elderly candidates frequently face attacks on their age, often couched as a broader pitch for generational change. President Bill Clinton (who won despite his own personal flaws) evoked Bob Dole’s age in 1996 when he promised to build “a bridge to the 21st Century.” But Clinton’s campaign packaged the generational pitch as part of an agenda touting his successful economic record, while also painting Dole as too extreme. (A message that Biden is likely to replicate this year against Donald Trump.)
More often, direct appeals for generational change fall on deaf ears — as I personally discovered working on Marco Rubio’s campaign in 2016. Embracing Rubio’s young age and charisma, our campaign argued that “outdated” politicians could not tackle modern problems. But voters disagreed: Rubio’s youthful appearance ended up being one of his biggest liabilities, which Trump successfully exploited by labeling him “little Marco.”
Nikki Haley, who endorsed Rubio’s 2016 bid, is similarly finding out how hard it is to run against an aging Trump, even one who mixes her up with Nancy Pelosi on the campaign trail.
Despite many Gen X candidates’ eagerness to ascend to power, voters keep rehiring Boomer politicians. President Ronald Reagan’s quip in 1984 about his opponent’s “youth and inexperience” is still effective today.
While conservative media takes delight in tracking Biden’s senior moments, the 77-year-old Trump seems to instinctively understand that it’s not his best line of attack. For example, following the Hur report on the handling of classified documents, Trump’s reaction focused not on Biden’s memory but on the appearance of a double standard in the justice system. While Trump makes light of Biden’s gaffes, his main message focuses on his own personal grievances and issues voters care about, including immigration.
It’s true that voters tell pollsters Biden’s age is a concern, but his fitness for office will only be a major issue if one of two things happen: First, Republicans would have to make a persuasive argument that Biden’s age is hurting average Americans. It’s possible the high number of voters who describe Biden as a “weak leader” could blame his advancing age on mishandling issues they care about. But conservatives’ argument that Biden is too old to effectively implement his own dangerous left-wing policies is an obvious contradiction.
A more likely scenario for how age would keep Biden from a second term would be a high-stakes senior moment that legitimately alarmed voters about Biden’s capacity to fulfill his basic duties as commander-in-chief. This concern explains why Biden’s staff is doing everything they can to shield him from big, unscripted moments like a pregame Super Bowl interview. An existential stumble could indeed come, but Republicans are not in control of their own destiny if they’re relying on that.
The 2024 election will offer voters clear choices on issues that directly impact every American, including tax rates, foreign policy, immigration and abortion. Voters will choose the candidate who best shares their values on those issues — regardless of age.
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