9 months ago
SACRAMENTO — Rep. Katie Porter’s Senate bid is facing a make-or-break moment — and a pro-Porter Super PAC is finally emerging with a modest plan for rallying Democratic women to push her over the top.
The late-arriving digital and streaming ad buy, shared first with POLITICO, starts today and runs at least two weeks. It comes as Porter is being handily outpolled and outspent by rival Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff, who is running ads trying to boost Republican Steve Garvey into the November runoff — where the congressman would have a clear advantage in deep blue California. Porter and her allies have just four weeks to eclipse Garvey and advance past the March 5 primary.
In a race that has already seen Porter and Schiff book roughly $25 million in airtime — a staggering sum for a safe Democratic seat — the $500,000 blitz from the OVRSITE PAC is a surgical strike and a bet that Porter can rally just enough of her core supporters to edge into the runoff.
The spot restates Porter’s case as a scourge of corporate interests, featuring footage of her grilling executives and brandishing her famous whiteboard. It will specifically target women under the age of 55 in the Los Angeles area.
Porter’s appeal among suburban women helped her flip and defend a seat in traditionally red Orange County, and polls suggest roughly a fifth of Democratic likely voters haven’t made up their minds. But she’s not the only one trying to peel off the remaining up-for-grab votes.
“All three of them will be vying for those undecideds right now,” Marva Diaz, owner and publisher of the election guide California Target Book, said of Schiff, Porter, and Garvey. “Adam Schiff won’t be taking his foot off the gas and will be trying to persuade those undecideds.”
Every dollar and vote helps as the Senate race enters a decisive stretch. The state has begun mailing ballots to voters, launching a month-long sprint to the primary — a small and diminishing runway for Porter to make her case to those who haven’t chosen a Senate candidate.
But the late PAC play may not be enough for Porter, who despite her national name identification and prodigious fundraising has trailed Schiff in a series of polls and struggled to separate herself from Garvey as conservatives coalesce behind him.
“Women do turn out and are especially motivated in this political season,” said Susannah Delano of Close the Gap California, an organization that helps elect women but is not involved in the Senate race.
At the same time, Delano said, it’s not clear Porter or her rivals — including Rep. Barbara Lee — can count on women voters. “It’s so close, the field is so varied, there are so many loyalties and two absolutely qualified women candidates, it’s tough to make any predictions,” she said.
The primary has effectively come down to a race for second place — and the November election will look dramatically different if Schiff draws Porter, a formidable opponent and a fellow Democrat, versus Garvey, a Republican in a state that has locked the GOP out of statewide office for almost 20 years.
The Schiff campaign sought to elevate Garvey into the runoff with an ad touting the former Dodger’s conservative credentials, which Porter promptly blasted as a “brazenly cynical” tactic.
Despite the enormous sums candidates have raised and spent so far, super PACs have only played a modest role to date. A pro-Schiff PAC is sitting on $2 million but hasn’t yet gone on the airwaves. The pro-Lee PAC ran ads last year but has sputtered following a staff exodus, with Lee languishing in fourth place.
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