2 years ago
RIO GRANDE CITY, Texas — Beneath a deep blue sky flecked by cirrus clouds, the towering palm trees that line Rio Grande City’s downtown sway as though keeping time with the high school marching band. Pickup trucks tug trailers covered in metallic tinsel, sunflowers and American flags. The parade, the mid-February kickoff to the Starr County Fair, rolls past the stately but declining, yellow-brick courthouse that Henry Cuellar recently earmarked several million dollars to save.
First though, Cuellar’s allies must save him. And it might come down to Starr County.
On Tuesday, Cuellar faces a rematch against Jessica Cisneros, a 28-year-old immigration attorney who’s running as a Bernie Sanders-endorsed progressive in a district that has elected the most conservative Democrat in Congress for nine terms running. But Cuellar’s grip on the sprawling 28th district, which stretches from the eastern outskirts of San Antonio south to the Rio Grande Valley and upriver to Laredo, slipped in the 2020 primary when Cisneros came within 2,746 votes of dislodging him. It was close across the district, but here in Starr County, Cuellar ran away with it. He won 70 percent of the vote and performed nearly as well when he romped to victory in the general election. Starr County, several people in town told me, was the margin that ensured Cuellar’s survival.
Starr County, along with neighboring Zapata County, got a burst of national notice in 2020 when former President Donald Trump performed much better than expected in the largely Hispanic, longtime Democratic strongholds. Zapata flipped Republican, voting for Trump by four percentage points, and Starr came close. The analysis in the immediate aftermath suggested that voters in the region had grown impatient with liberal identity politics and that they were becoming increasingly open to Republican messaging. I wondered if that rightward shift in this less populous but still crucial region spelled trouble even for an anti-abortion Democrat like Cuellar.
Cuellar’s political fortunes took a hit earlier this year when the FBI raided his Laredo home and campaign headquarters. There have been no charges filed and officials have said nothing about the nature of the investigation, though various reports have suggested it has something to do with his longstanding ties to oil interests in the former Soviet republic of Azerbaijan.
These headlines have circulated widely in the more urban and more liberal northern reaches of the district, promoted relentlessly by Cisneros who has lashed Cuellar for his “history of corruption and close ties with his corporate donors over the voters of this district.”
But over four days in Rio Grande City I detected no significant erosion of support for Cuellar. In the era of Trump, all races, no matter how local, have become nationalized to some extent. Starr County, though, reveals a kind of practical-mindedness about politics that appears almost immune to the populist sloganeering by the extreme wings of both parties. Indeed, Cuellar’s self-celebrated bipartisanship and his ability, as a member of the House Appropriations Committee, to deliver federal dollars to a place that desperately needs the assistance is just as important, perhaps even more so, as where he lines up ideologically.
“We’re not interested in the talk. Show us what you’ve done. And until we know otherwise, I mean, the guy is innocent until proven guilty,” says Jessica Vera-Rios, a clinical psychologist in Rio Grande City whose family has known Cuellar for years. She’s running for Starr County Democratic Party chair and describes herself as “a true Democrat.”
In this part of the world, this means pro-Second Amendment rights, pro-law enforcement, and pro-border security (though not necessarily a border wall). Basically, conservative like Cuellar. Voters here are driven by “kitchen table issues,” and two primary industries drive a significant portion of the strength of the region’s economy: law enforcement and oil and gas.
Like the overwhelming majority of people in Rio Grande City, Vera-Rios is Catholic. She went to Immaculate Conception School in Rio Grande City and got married in the Catholic church. Growing up, Jessica wasn’t allowed indulgences like getting her nose pierced.
Like several people I talked to in town, she thinks Trump’s near victory in Starr County was a one-off rather than an outright red shift. She cites a moment toward the end of the final presidential debate when President Joe Biden made what a lot of pundits characterized as a gaffe. “I would transition away from the oil industry, yes,” Biden said. “It has to be replaced by renewable energy over time.” Republican groups took this and ran with it, telling people that if Biden got elected, he would eliminate their jobs.
“Joe just wants to transition away from Texas. Remember that on Election Day,” Gov. Greg Abbott fired off on Twitter the following day. Vera-Rios also points to the fact that down-ballot Democrats, including Cuellar, did extremely well in the same cycle.
“He’s never forgotten us,” she says of Cuellar. “He may be in Washington, but he knows our needs.”
According to Joel Villarreal, Rio Grande City’s Democratic mayor, most people who live there have a centrist political ideology. “As far as actual viable candidates or people who’ve been in office, I can’t remember any extremes. At either end.” Cisneros is pushing for a $15 minimum wage. Mayor Villarreal brings it up without being prompted.
“If you’re going to jump from 7 or 9 dollars an hour to 15, you’re going to bankrupt the small businesses here, when you’re looking at owners who are barely making ends meet,” he says. “There are so many extremes. And when you’re looking at not being able to seek an abortion whether it’s rape or incest. … I mean, that’s an extreme point,” he says, emphasizing the word extreme.
He believes that Cuellar’s support is still holding. “There’s pause because of what happened, and optics are terrible of course for any politician… except for Trump,” he says with a laugh. “No matter what happened he always made it through. Until the last time.”
Danny Villarreal (no relation to the mayor) has lived in Rio Grande City his whole life. He’s owned a bail bonds company for the past 22 years and tutors at the alternative school in Rio Grande City. When I asked his party affiliation, his first answer was “realist.” “I’m a Democrat, but I believe in facts,” he says, making frequent references to the “true Democratic stance.” He has voted for Cuellar in past elections and says he will this time, even though he thinks abortion should be a woman’s choice. He’s not exactly enthusiastic, and I can’t tell whether he actually likes Cuellar.
What’s obvious is that the overwhelming draw to voting for Cuellar, is his seat on the Appropriations Committee.
“He’s our five-star quarterback, our Tom Brady,” says Andy Hernandez, a city commissioner in neighboring La Grulla.
The FBI mystery is a concern, Hernandez told me, but people are still voting for him because of what he can do for them. He thinks Cisneros’ campaign is concentrating too much on attack ads, which he says doesn’t resonate in his pocket of South Texas. (Both candidates have launched a series of attack ads.) “The bottom line for voters here,” Hernandez says, “is what a candidate can bring back to the community. … We’re one of the poorest communities in America, but we have a big brother in him.”
On a recent morning, Cuellar spoke to me on the phone from his office in Laredo. Back in 2020 when I interviewed him before the primary, he became animated when discussing something that riled him. The effect was almost comedic. Was he a skilled actor, I wondered then, or was he really this worked up? I heard a glimmer of this when I asked him if he has followed the national coverage.
“Justice Democrats is pouring millions of dollars into my district. I would venture 98 percent of it comes from outside Texas — from California and New York,” he quipped.
In 2020, a few days after Trump flipped neighboring Zapata County and almost did the same in Starr, Cuellar traveled the district and stopped in Rio Grande City to hold a town hall meeting with local leaders and residents to discuss what might have been behind the surprising shift. And he says it was oil and gas jobs, and the defund the police movement.
“Trump kept saying, ‘Hey, did you hear what Biden wants to do to oil and gas jobs?’ And the two issues that residents were talking about were defunding the police, and oil and gas jobs,” Cuellar told me. “If anyone threatens the oil and gas industry. … That’s 40,000 jobs in my district.”
Cuellar acknowledges that Trump-adjacent messaging appeals to some voters in his district. “Aside from Hispanic heritage, most of the Rio Grande Valley and South Texas have similar demographics to Trump’s strongholds in rural communities across the country,” Cuellar told the Texas Tribune in 2020. “It’s homogenous, deeply religious, pensively patriotic, socially conservative, and it’s hurting economically.”
Jason Villalba, the chair of the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation, says state and national Democrats were out of touch with what he thinks is happening in the Rio Grande Valley. “They’ve failed to accept that there was a movement in the last cycle. They want to believe it was anomalous, fortuitous, driven solely by Trump, or whatever. But they’re not paying attention,” he says. Still, he doesn’t necessarily agree with the notion that what’s happening regionally means the area is going to become a Republican stronghold. When he served in the Texas House of Representatives as a Republican (he’s no longer affiliated with the party), his friends from the Valley were all Democrats. He says they voted with Republicans almost as often as they voted with their own caucus. On certain issues, like guns, they voted more frequently with Republicans. “It’s just that people are now willing to be more openly Republican whereas in the past it’s not something they would consider,” he says.
Unlike the Republican Party, Villalba says, which has invested a lot of money in courting the favor of conservative Democrats in South Texas, Democrats haven’t counter-programmed with, for example, new community centers. This is something I heard from Democratic strategists too. Villalba says running a progressive candidate in a district like this is likely a mistake. “They think they can nationalize a candidate and put somebody down there like AOC in a generally conservative district.”
When I talked to Cisneros at her campaign headquarters in Laredo, she said the shift to Trump in places like Starr County was a rejection of the status quo and that bodes well for her chances.
“There were some areas where, like in the general there was a bigger gain for Trump as compared to how Democrats have performed in the area in the past,” she says. “But there are also areas like that where we did the best in the Democratic primary. And I think it’s because the status quo just isn’t working for a lot of people, especially along the border, and then the pandemic hit.”
Villalba says that when outsiders picture the Valley, they get it wrong. “People who haven’t been down there are expecting a war zone,” adding that in 2014, Abbott has went as far as to compare it to a Third World country. “It’s the opposite of a Third World country. Everything’s brand new. There’s an Applebee’s on every corner.”
Simple economics, not wedge issues and culture wars, are what drive voters in this part of the district.
“In Congress, you need seniority to get the job done. I’m at the table where the decisions are made. Starr and Zapata and the smaller rural counties don’t have the grant writers that places like San Antonio do. They don’t have the money to hire them. So somebody in my position can be helpful getting earmarks,” says Cuellar, adding that he works with outside agencies to agree to put up funding.
“My thing is, hey, don’t forget the small rural areas. Everybody’s got to be treated the same.”
I asked Matt Angle, a longtime Texas Democratic strategist, if he thinks the idea of a progressive winning in the general election might make some conservative Democrats in the district throw their hands up and vote for a Republican. He doesn’t think so. “Democrats will vote for the Democratic nominee, regardless of whether it’s Henry or it’s Jessica,” he says.
He agrees with Villalba that the seeming surge in popularity for Republicans in the area is because of poorly executed messaging from Democrats.
“The only Democrats that have been communicating are the ones running on the local levels. No Democrat, statewide or presidential, has communicated to any significant degree since the Clinton campaign in the 90s.”
He’s not entirely sure whether Cuellar will keep the lion’s share of his loyal base.
“He’s got a good chance of his pals sticking around because no shoe has dropped,” Angle says, referring to the FBI probe. “But it’s a pretty big hit to take, because while there’s been nothing more to implicate him, there’s been nothing to clear him, either.”
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