9 months ago
The stench of George Santos’ many scandals mattered. Democrats won a race fought mostly over immigration. And Republicans’ already tenuous House majority just got even narrower.
Tom Suozzi’s victory Tuesday is yet another in a string of Democratic wins and overperformances in special elections. But it’s especially notable that Suozzi, the district’s former representative, won by a larger-than-expected margin in places that had swung against his party in recent years.
Unlike most other suburbs across the country, Long Island and the outer boroughs of New York City have raced to the right since former President Donald Trump left office. Between 2021 and 2023, Republicans won the Island’s four congressional seats and almost every major local office, and the GOP gubernatorial nominee won both of Long Island’s counties by double digits in 2022.
Suozzi’s win broke that streak in resounding fashion. And he did it while operating mostly on defense over immigration, pitching himself as a moderate who would work with both parties to restrict migration across the southern border — a strategy that puzzled some Democrats at the time but now may provide a game plan for neutering the issue in other races.
“It’s time to find common ground and to start delivering for the people” of the country, Suozzi said in his victory speech.
Santos, the fabulist and alleged fraudster who won the congressional seat in 2022 by 8 points, proved to be too much for Mazi Melesa Pilip, the GOP nominee, to overcome, particularly against a known quantity in Suozzi.
To be clear, this is one special election, in one idiosyncratic congressional district, held on a snowy day in February — it won’t be predictive of what will happen in November.
But that doesn’t mean there aren’t lessons to learn, and tangible ramifications. The result reduces House Republicans’ majority to just two votes and confirms that control of the chamber is firmly up for grabs in November — especially with Democrats in Albany ready to flip a handful of other seats with a stroke of their redistricting pen.
Here are six takeaways from the race:
The candidate has to match the district, and Suozzi did
Democrats have notched a victory in a bellwether suburban seat where neither Trump or President Joe Biden are particularly popular.
They were able to do it by turning to Suozzi, a well-known former officeholder who vacated the seat only two years ago in an ill-fated bid for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Suozzi’s decision to leave the battleground seat was followed by Santos’ surprise victory. His candidacy was a relatively safe decision for Democrats given his name identification as a former mayor, county executive and House member. He ran on a broad theme of bipartisanship, casting himself as a moderate who is willing to work with Republicans.
That’s all to say that for Democrats, “candidate quality,” as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell called it in 2022, still matters even in these low-turnout special elections. And it was an important victory for the battered local Democratic party after years of losses.
Suozzi is not beloved by progressives — some even heckled him for his support of Israel on his victory stage. He’s also been critical of the left flank of the party’s handling of criminal justice issues, which Republicans hammered to success in 2022. He refused to take the liberal Working Families Party ballot line, but embraced labor support.
In the end, Suozzi didn’t need the left to win.
Both parties got a key test of their election messaging
Democrats may have a new blueprint for tough swing districts this November.
Suozzi did not shy away from calling to protect the border — an issue that has otherwise bedeviled Democrats, including Biden. He also made a strategic decision to separate himself from the president, who didn’t campaign in the district and who Suozzi called “old.”
He also bucked the idea that support for Israel is a big liability for Democrats. Suozzi traveled to the country in a demonstration of solidarity and said he would have been at odds with his own party by supporting GOP-backed standalone Israel aid bill. He also tossed aside the typical Democratic playbook on abortion rights.
Trump was a non-factor. And the race played out against the backdrop of sustained dysfunction for the House GOP on a border security bill, which Suozzi linked to Pilip.
Suozzi’s win is the first sign that House Republicans running away from a bipartisan agreement on the issue may have backfired.
Democrats running in pivotal House races now have an example of how to parry Republican attacks over the border: They can argue their party is willing to cut a deal on immigration while House Republicans want to keep it alive just to help Trump.
Money matters
Democrats invested a lot in winning this race, spending early and a lot.
They vastly outspent Republicans, putting in around $14 million to the GOP’s $8.3 million on the airwaves in the nation’s most expensive media market. Suozzi’s victory was boosted in part by the House Majority PAC, Democrats’ main congressional super PAC, which dropped over $6 million on advertising. Its Republican counterpart, the Congressional Leadership Fund, was the top GOP spender — putting in over $4 million — but it wasn’t enough.
An early election-year victory could help excite some Democratic voters who are disillusioned with the party of late and allow them to claim momentum. But it’s one thing to pour in millions of dollars for a House race at the beginning of the cycle when other campaigns have yet to kick into high gear. As races across the country pick up, outside groups — on both sides of the aisle — will need to prioritize their investments.
It was a good night for Democrats, but it’s just one race
Democrats had a slew of advantages in the race. A recent former incumbent with extremely high name ID in the most expensive media market in the country. A massive fundraising and spending advantage. A short six-week timeline that made it difficult for Republicans to catch up. And GOP groups that largely sat out the race for the first few weeks.
It won’t be that way come November.
Democrats are targeting some five other districts in New York in the fall, including two on Long Island. All will have well-funded Republican incumbents backed up by deep-pocketed super PACs.
There’s no doubt Suozzi’s win is a salve for Democrats after recent years of Long Island losses, and his strategy to counter immigration-centered attacks and distance himself from the national Democratic brand offers a playbook. But ousting members like Anthony D’Esposito or Nick LaLota will be harder than taking back a district scarred by George Santos.
It’s still too soon to say whether Democrats have fully stopped the bleeding in New York.
The presidential candidates want to make it about them
Both Biden and former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley — who is down by double-digits in her home state of South Carolina ahead of next week’s primary — placed Republicans’ loss squarely on one person: Trump.
“When Republicans run on Trump’s extreme agenda — even in a Republican-held seat — voters reject them,” Biden campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez said in a statement. Haley spokesperson Olivia Perez-Cubas said that “Donald Trump continues to be a huge weight against Republican candidates.”
It’s not the first time Trump has been blamed for his party’s losses. After last year’s November elections, some of his primary opponents used Republican failures as a dig against the former president.
But those attacks may be less potent here: Biden won New York’s 3rd district by eight points in 2020 before Santos carried it by a roughly similar margin two years later. It’s a purple district, but not as stinging as some of the other losses the GOP suffered in recent months.
Trump swung at Pilip following her loss, calling her a “very foolish woman” for not embracing him.
“MAGA, which is most of the Republican Party, stayed home — and it always will, unless it is treated with the respect that it deserves,” he wrote on Truth Social in all caps. “Give us a real candidate in the district for November. Suozzi, I know him well, can be easily beaten!”
The future is uncertain
The boundaries of the district could soon look slightly different — state lawmakers are expected to drop a new map this week with a court-ordered round of redistricting altering New York’s House map.
This round of redistricting may not change things dramatically for Suozzi come November. New York Democrats are desperate to avoid yet another round of lawsuits over the map to focus on campaigning in the region.
Both parties already dumped millions of dollars into a costly media market — resources that will likely be directed elsewhere.
With Suozzi’s win, Democrats will likely avoid a bruising June primary for the seat. Republicans, meanwhile, are back to the drawing board. Pilip hasn’t announced if she will run again.
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